Gebremichael Negash
14 January 2025
From individual voices to major institutions, many are warning that Tigray may once again be drifting toward internal conflict. The signs are unmistakable: growing political fragmentation, escalating rhetoric, and widespread public frustration are converging in ways that feel dangerously familiar. No one understands the true cost of war better than the people of Tigray. After surviving a devastating recent conflict and generations of instability before it, Tigrayans know that war brings no victory, only destruction.
The wounds are still raw. Infrastructure remains shattered, families remain displaced, and countless lives have been permanently altered. I write as a refugee displaced from Western Tigray, carrying the memory of a peaceful life that was destroyed by conflict. The world calls us “refugees,” but we were once farmers, students, parents, and children living on our own land. The violence did more than uproot families; it separated entire communities, created trauma that words can hardly measure, and left children and youth with emotional scars that will shape their futures for years to come.
Even after the Pretoria Agreement ended active fighting in 2022, the expectation that people would return home safely has not been fulfilled. Instead, new political tensions and power struggles have emerged, threatening the fragile progress made. For refugees , already living with uncertainty and vulnerability , the possibility of renewed conflict feels painfully real.
A Region at Risk: Fragmentation, Polarization, and Leadership Crisis
The human cost of the conflict remains overwhelming. Ethiopia currently hosts millions of internally displaced people, the largest share of whom were uprooted from Tigray. Many who fled Western Tigray and surrounding areas remain unable to return home. Their displacement is not merely a statistic; it represents lives permanently disrupted, communities torn apart, and futures darkened by trauma.
Political fragmentation has become one of the greatest threats to Tigray’s stability. A deepening “us versus them” mentality within Tigray’s leadership is creating fertile ground for factionalism. Instead of prioritizing the wellbeing of the people, some leaders appear increasingly driven by partisan or personal interests. History offers strong warnings about the danger of such divisions. Menelik’s manipulation of internal Tigrayan rivalries and Haile Selassie’s exploitation of political fractures weakened the region for generations. Today, similar patterns seem to be resurfacing.
The widening division within the TPLF , with one faction aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael and another with Getachew Reda, has resulted in parallel administrations governing different parts of Tigray. This is not merely a political disagreement; it is a division that affects governance, service delivery, and the daily life of citizens. The tension between the TPLF leadership and the SMRT party under Getachew Reda has further eroded institutional cohesion, making it harder for the region to speak with one united voice.
These fractures are compounded by the rise of digital polarization. Social media has become a battleground where toxic narratives and inflammatory rhetoric dominate. Academic research documenting the harmful impact of online polarization in Ethiopia shows that such digital hostility undermines peacebuilding, marginalizes women’s voices, deepens mistrust, and sows seeds for future conflict. When social media strengthens division rather than dialogue, it becomes a powerful accelerant of instability.
At the center of all this lies a profound leadership vacuum. Tigray’s political recovery remains incomplete because leaders have not articulated an inclusive, people-centered vision for the future. Many citizens now question whether veteran political actors, especially within the TPLF, are prioritizing factional agendas over the collective wellbeing of the community. Yet political conflict cannot thrive without public participation. The youth, civil society, religious leaders, and ordinary Tigrayans must use peaceful civic engagement to pressure political actors to embrace negotiation, compromise, and dialogue. Religious institutions, which have historically held moral authority in Tigray, are uniquely positioned to calm tensions and guide society toward unity.
A Path Forward: Peace, Accountability, and Collective Action
Tigray must unite around one clear priority: the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and a peaceful, constitutional resolution of territorial issues, especially the status of Western Tigray and the safe return of displaced families. Without genuine peace, no amount of aid or reconstruction will lead to lasting progress.
International engagement is essential for a sustainable recovery. Humanitarian organizations must be granted unrestricted access to deliver food, medicine, shelter, and psychosocial support. More than one hundred aid trucks per day are needed to sustain the humanitarian response, an enormous effort that cannot succeed without global commitment. International human rights organizations must push for accountability for war crimes, as justice is essential for rebuilding trust among communities fractured by violence.
The Tigrayan diaspora also plays a critical role. Diaspora communities can mobilize resources, advocate for peaceful resolution, and serve as bridges between local communities and international partners. Their involvement can accelerate rebuilding efforts and bring renewed hope to displaced families. Education programs focusing on peacebuilding, conflict resolution, and social cohesion are equally important, especially for Tigray’s youth. Equipping young people with tools to pursue dialogue over division is essential for preventing future cycles of violence.
Tigray’s future depends on unity, collective responsibility, and a moral commitment to avoid another devastating conflict. As someone who has lived through displacement, I know that the consequences of war do not end with a ceasefire. Emotional wounds, distrust, and uncertainty persist long after the guns fall silent. The choices made today will determine whether Tigray rebuilds with dignity and hope, or whether it succumbs to another generation of trauma and instability.
We must not allow political rivalry to eclipse human dignity. Tigrayans must raise a collective voice for inclusive, peaceful, and democratic governance. Only through unity, dialogue, and sincere engagement can Tigray move beyond its painful past and build a future worthy of its people.
Profile
Gebremichael Negash is a refugee displaced from Western Tigray and an active member of Tsilal (ፅላል), a civil society organization serving the people of Western Tigray.
Email: wele63776@gmail.com
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